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Writer's pictureAJ Gonzalez

Chris Davis: The Cautionary Tale Of MLB Long-Term Contracts


(Photo by MLB.com)


MLB is an entity that is different from the other three major sports in the United States. The league, really, doesn't have a salary cap. Yet many franchises are labeled a "small market" which can't secure top free agents. Especially in the past few years, teams chose to wait until the FA market is dry. Franchises are willing to spend it, but they are cautious. Take last season's jewels of the free agent class, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Both signed towards the beginning of Spring Training with the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres, respectively. MLB franchises decided to build their teams through the draft and make shrewd signings and maybe a huge signing and execute a trade to land a talented piece to propel them to a World Series championship. Take the current champions, the Washington Nationals. GM Mike Rizzo drew out a blueprint which includes drafting smartly, affordable signings, brilliant trades and a gigantic free agent pickup (Max Scherzer) molded this into a championship-caliber franchise.


The team that shares a region with the Nationals, the Baltimore Orioles, haven't enjoyed that success recently. In the last couple seasons, the O's were one of the worst teams, record wise, in the big leagues. Clearly, they are in rebuilding mode. Most of the core players from their playoff appearances in 2014 and 2015 are long gone. One remains, but not because he is a valuable asset to the baseball club. It's that the contract he is tied to makes trading him complicated.


Chris Davis began his MLB career as a fringe player with the Texas Rangers in 2008. Davis was a power hitter. No more or no less. Just looking at the guy. You knew you weren't going to depend on him to give you a timely base hit. He was intent to go for the fences, EVERY TIME. The Rangers saw potential in Davis, but he had a tendency to strikeout at a record pace. So at the 2011 trade deadline, Texas traded Davis to Baltimore.


They say a change of scenery is what you need to shake off the cobwebs. The Orioles gave Davis playing time at first time and designated hitter......and something happened. The potential that the Rangers saw in him was featured in 2012 with 33 home runs, 85 RBI, .501 SLG, .827 OPS. The next season, Davis had one of the greatest seasons in Baltimore Orioles history. A major league-leading 53 home runs, 138 RBI, .634 SLG, 1.004 OPS and actually had a .286 BA. He was voted into his first All-Star Game as a starter at first base and finished third in the MVP voting. In 2014, his numbers dipped: 26 HR, 72 RBI, .404 SLG, .704 OPS, but he bounced back in 2015 with a stat line of 47 HR (led the league), 117 RBI, .562 SLG, .923 OPS.


Entering the off-season, Davis became a free agent and many figured he will be paid. By another team other than the Orioles. You see, owner Peter Angelos is skeptical about giving a player a long term deal. He has every right to be skeptical since baseball players could tail off in a moment. So it was a shock to baseball experts when Angelos signed Davis to a 7 year, $161 million deal. He had become a feared power hitter and staying in the American League would give him a chance to excel at designated hitter more than first base since his fielding is BLEH! In 2016, Davis had a reasonable season by his standards: 38 HR, 84 RBI, .459 SLG, .923 OPS, but led the majors in strikeouts in 219. So in his first year of the contract, Davis was living up to the contract.


Remember the part when I said baseball players could tail off in a moment? Well.....in 2017, Davis did indeed tail off, but not by much: 26 HR, 61 RBI, .423 SLG, .792 OPS. Right there is where a red flag should be waving. I mean, Davis was still producing, but not at the level that you want from someone just signed a lucrative deal for an extended period of time. 2018 was a nightmare for Davis and the Orioles. The team was no longer the playoff contender that they were. They were trading parts including Manny Machado and others to prepare for the future. Davis' play suffered: 16 HR, 49 RBI, .296 SLG.....yes, .296 slugging percentage. That could be a 1/3 of baseball's batting average. .539 OPS and are you ready? A .168 BATTING AVERAGE. The lowest of all-time for qualified MLB batters. 2019 saw a build new staff for the Orioles, but the same ol' problems for Davis. The stat line was: .179 BA, 12 HR, 36 RBI, .326 SLG, .601 OPS. It got to the point where new manager Brandon Hyde benched him numerous times and both men were involved in an altercation in the dugout during a game.


This situation is not going away for a while. Davis has two more years on the contract and the Orioles cannot trade him, because teams don't want a player who hits below the Mendoza line and making $17 million. Baltimore is able to "afford" the contract since the club is in full rebuild. I don't blame Davis taking the contract and everyone knew he probably had a shelf life in his potential. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols were locked into huge contracts and now, both are in the downside of their careers. It's a gamble at times. I hope Chris Davis can rebound. He is only 34 and has enough in the tank for a resurgence.


But for now, he is a cautionary tale.


(Sources: Wikipedia, Orioles.com, Baseball Reference, MLB.com, Baltimore Sun)


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